We believe the world is uncertain and the future mostly unpredictable.  There is no guaranteed future in any asset class, economy, or present trend.  Traditional portfolios are NOT designed with an unpredictable future or uncertain world in mind.

Change is the only certainty. Price trends both up and down have formed across diverse markets throughout human history as a characteristic of change.  Trends often begin without warning or wide recognition, last longer than expected, only to end when many believe they will continue indefinitely.

Meanwhile, society has difficulty recognizing and learning from these repeating themes.  Individual assessment of risk is also unstable and rarely quantified. These characteristics of history, human behavior, and market action pose significant challenges for investors.

Relying on a perpetual bull phase in any one market, sector, or grouping of highly correlated markets carries significant risks and increases the fragility of a portfolio.  Anything other than that one outcome in that one market could seriously harm the portfolio.

Alternatively, a systematic process designed to align with price trends in diversified markets has the potential to reduce these risks while also improving long-term returns.  Rather than being harmed, a robust systematic process increases our opportunities to benefit from divergent trends and change.  

Price trends form and are exploitable across diverse markets due to a number of factors including behavioral biases, price-insensitive market participants such as hedgers, and market adjustment over time to changing underlying factors. 

Our view is that long-term evidence suggests a diversified trend-following strategy can perform well through various market environments, especially during persistent divergent periods.  Such a strategy is not dependent on any one market or outcome.  Our only dependency is that price trends in some markets form either up or down over the medium to long-term. 

Anderson Creek Trading utilizes a quantitative, systematic, and repeatable process aimed at capturing significant portions of persistent price trends across diverse markets.  Our strategy is designed to cut losses short when price trends fail to persist while letting winning trends run.  Ability to position long, short, or flat across markets in our diversified universe allows for the assumption of risk during both bull and bear phases in these markets.  While not necessary for success, it is possible for our strategy to systematically benefit from phases of increased collective feelings of uncertainty.